Alert: IAU GLD

Move stops up on GLD

Sell 50 shares GLD @ 90.25 Stop market
Sell 50 shares GLD @ 89 .25 stop market

Alert: GDX

The FED cut 50 points which did nothing for the economy but pushed the metals even higher. We are going to buy into this overbought rally. Take a full position of GDX, later we will sell a call instead of setting a stop.

Buy 100 shares GDX @ 51.34

Trade Alert: IAU GLD

Gold has had a nice run and become short term overbought on a technical basis, but the fundamentals of lower interest rates delayed the impending retracement. Don't listen to Cramer, he is trying to set you up. If they cut 75 or more the traders will short into---rather than add on--- the FED meeting. We will likely be stopped out of our long GLD and be left short on IAU.

Why Debt? Because FED.

The distraction du jour is a debate on ‘Monetary Policy’. Specifically what should the FED do in regard to interest rates? The one dominant overriding FED policy is to drive the US so deeply into its debt that they have to pump daylight down to us. The only differences discussed are in the means of doing it and who among the financial elite’ benefits. The media do their part in deflecting attention from the root cause of fiscal evils which is that the FED is a private bank issuing public money. All the current intellectually dressed up discourse on banking theory and monetary policy debate is BS. In reality this is just a good ole fashion turf war with the Street crowd on the side of propped up equities and the bankers who want the toilet paper dollar doled out today to be worth more tomorrow rather than less. It’s a cute little ancillary benefit for the bankers and a stealth interest charge to the borrower ---the dollar borrowed being worth less than the dollar repaid. While the balance of power up there will rock to and fro, for the minions below feeding off the scrapes of victors table it never changes, the borrower is servant to the lender; the US is in their ---FEDs--- debt, so we are all their slaves. Right now Wall Streets biggest Godfather, Goldman Sachs CEO Hank Paulson is the Treasury Sectary of the United States, so guess who’s in charge? Yup the Street is and the US dollar rolling over under resistance of 80 on the USDX being well on its way into the dirt.

It was in 1913 that J P Morgan and John Rockefeller fronting for bankers Maynard Rothschild and Paul War-burg succeeded in establishing the federal reserve system of the United States or the FED. The FED is a private bank which holds secret meetings ---see Mission Impossible--- to determine the nation’s fate. Its business plan is to seize the constitutional authority to issue money from congress and become the sole issuer of the nation's money. The result is a new business plan for Uncle Sam, which is debt. That is instead of issuing or using his own money to pay for things uncle Sam will borrow the money from the FED at interest whether he needs to or not. If you or I ran a business that way what would they us? CRAZY! Oh and by the way the money the FED lends to Sam comes from nothing, right out of thin air. HOW? When Sam saunters up to the FED window to borrow the bank doesn’t crank up the press and print more dollars, no way. The fed gives Sam an electronic credit for the desired sum and that is it. Now Sam must pledge tangible collateral for the debt he incurs, that collateral being the income tax, a regressive tax on the real producers of the nation's wealth the workers. But the bank only promises to remove the accounting entry once the debt is paid. What would we be called if we did business that way? CRIMINALS its FRAUD. But it is and that is all that counts.

Actually the process described above is how it works with you and me private people, the regular Sams. Money we borrow from the bank or Credit Card Company comes from nothing. Shocking, but simple, so simple that a construction worker can figure it out so, the bankers now more con artists and criminals than financiers cloak the simple money making scam behind high powered banking jargon and hyped up hyper complicated sounding economic BS.

A synopsis of the mechanics of the debt driving process is:
1. Sam sells bonds to the FED,
2 .The FED buys the bonds with money outta nowhere
3. The bonds mature and Sam sells more bonds to the FED to pay back the maturing ones.

The only thing that gets paid off on the money that never needed to be borrowed in the first place is the interest via the income tax on the citizens. Now that's Ponzi capitalism par excellence.

---In fact the 16th amendment was fraudulently passed in the infamous year 1913--

So Why war, Why welfare, Why moon shots, Why Debt? Because FED. One the FED is the nation’s bank and bankers profit from the issuance of debt. But mainly because the borrower is slave to the lender; the US is in their ---FEDs--- debt, so we are all their slaves.
Any other debate is smoke. The heated media made debates about should they (the FED) stop inflation, or protect the economy is worse than worthless, its distraction.

Here is an example. The pretense of this article is to criticize the FED for lowering interest rates in favor of the Street gang. It divides the audience into two camps battling over an irrelevant issue. The true issue is simply that the FED should not exist. Anything else is distraction. Then there is a video showing the Good Cop Bad Cop routine between a true Street mouthpiece Steve Liesman and someone I want to like but just don’t trust Rick Santelli with Barry Ritholtz of fusion IQ.

Mission Impossible Link: http://www.stockmarketimplode.com/2007/11/mission-impossible.html

Video Link: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=627092831

Article Link:http://seekingalpha.com/article/61614-fed-s-folly-fooled-by-flawed-futures?source=side_bar_editors_picks

Trade Alert:GLD IAU

Gold is really running. The eight day EMA for GLD is about 89.50 in the daily chart (Link 1). In the 15 minute time frame the eight day EMA is about 91.50 (Link 2). We want to stay long above this average --15 min.-- as long as it is upward trending. But we have to be careful as the gap will probably fill before the next leg up. So, place temporary stops : for 1/2 a position @ 89.50 and 1/2 @ 88.50. These stops are a little wide in my mind, but should keep us clear of the gap and the specialist.

Sell 50 shares GLD @ 89.50
Sell 50 shares GLD @ 88.50

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=gld&sid=0&o_symb=gld&freq=1&time=4&x=33&y=15

Link 2:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=gld&sid=0&o_symb=gld&freq=7&time=3

Trade Alert:GLD IAU

You can see by the chart of the IAU that gold is extremely overgought with the stochastic over 70 and rising while the MACD is signaling a dangerous bearish crossover. It won't occur though until after the FED cuts interest rates. That's when gold will experience its exhaustion rally, the rally we will short into by closing the long GLD position and keeping the short on IAU. As long as IAU stays above the 8 day EMA it must be considered bullish. Wait until after the announced rate cut.

Link:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=IAU&time=8&freq=1

Cramer vs Cramer

Trade Update: SPY IAU

We are out of the SPY IVV trade. The IVV gaped up this morning and fell back under the 8 day EMA at 136.23 Link. This was the long side of the S&P500 trade. We already exited the short side.

Trade Update: IAU GLD

Putting in stops

Sell 100 shares GLD @ 89.25 stop market
Buy 100 shares IAU @ 91.50 stop market

Trade Alert:GLD IAU

Gold has been kept alive by the 3/4 point rate cut making it even more over bought. We are long GLD which hit 90.35 on January 3 fell back, then shot back up after the cut to close last night at 90.08. The action is forming a double top at 90 (Link 1) so we want to take our profits and get out. The line in the sand is 90. In the 15 minute time period you can see see the gap that formed yesterday (Link 2). The market will probably fill the gap before deciding on it's next near time direction. I intend to put the stop near the bottom edge of the gap, but far enough away from the specialist to avoid being whipped. I will post a stop after the market opens.

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=gld&sid=0&o_symb=gld&freq=1&time=8

Link 2:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=gld&sid=0&o_symb=gld&freq=7&time=18

Trade Update: IVV SPY

It looks as though real buying finally came into the market yesterday. For a while I didn't think it was going to happen. You can see in the chart (Link 1) that the SPY had a huge gush of selling volume followed by a huge on set of buying volume. This suggests that the selling was exhaustive and the a short term turn around is possible. Still 3.14 is a gigantic move for the spyders SPY so I would look for an orderly pull back on the open to the eight day ema in the 15 minute time period (Link 2). You can see that we had a successful test of the 126 area low. We are long only the IVV if we continue up we will add to it above 135.

Link 1: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spy&sid=0&o_symb=spy&freq=1&time=8&x=25&y=17


Link 2:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spy&sid=9864&o_symb=spy&freq=1&time=18

Trade Update:OIL

We are out of OIL @ 51.13 which is just pennies over the eight day ema.
Will take a1/2 position in USO over 70.

Trade Update: OIL IVV IAU

For the open positions IVV and OIL the stop will be the eight day EMA in the 15 minute time period

Alert:SPY

cover 200 shares SPY @ 132.11

Alert: OIL

Short a 1/2 position OIL

Sell short 50 shares OIL @ 51.17
Stop @ 51.90

Alert : SPY IVV

Sell 200 shares SPY @ 12881

Alert: IVV SPY

Cover the full SPY short position

Buy to cover 100 shares SPY @ 130.61

Trade Update: IVV SPY

As you can see in the 15 minute chart (Link 1) the market gaped down on the open and crashed to 126.00 before recovering and filling the gap all day long. For the day the SPY/IVV ended down by about 1%. The recovery I believe was only the shorts in a scramble to protect themselves from the market manipulation of the FED. I do not think there will be follow through. You can see we are clearly in a down trend below the 200 dma with the 20 dma and 50 dma both trending down (link 2). There is no reason to get bullish yet. Probably we will see the bears reengage this market and test the lows of 126 again in the next few trading days. If that happens and the market holds the 126 zone in may recover back to 130 and thereby form a W pattern. That would be bullish short term. That will give us a chance to exit the short on SPY and ride the IVV back up. If 126 does not hold we have to go back two years to find support in the 121-122 zone (Link 3), in which case we will add to the SPY short.
to recap I do not think this market is going to stage a turn around, but what I think does not matter, the market is my master.

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spy&sid=0&o_symb=spy&freq=7&time=18&x=29&y=14

Link 2:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=8&freq=1

Link 3:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spy&sid=9864&o_symb=spy&freq=1&time=9

Plunger Alert

I have been reluctant to heavily short this market without evidence of a failure of the Plunger protection team (PPT) to hold it. I said in an earlier post that 12000 on the DOW was probably the line in the sand. I concentrate on the DOW not because it's a true stock market but because it's rigged. The DOW consists of a mere 30 stocks 25% of which are the financials the Granddaddy being Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs can push the DOW up all by itself simply by buying it's own shares. It's Goldman Sachs that the PPT operates through during regular market hours, buying through it's brokers from money electronically deposited in off shore accounts. The point is we are a lot closer to 12000 than I ever thought we would be. As you can see from the chart (Link 1) the DOW has nosed over and is diving down. It actually broke through 12000 to 11953.70 before coming to rest at 12099. Pay no attention to the overbought stochastic. The price data has now biased the indicator to the overbought condition and it can stay there for years. Since the truer stock market is the S&P500 some technical analysis on it is due. For that see link 2 for an excellent treatment by Clive Maud.


Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&time=8

Link 2:http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1200953160.php

Alert: OIL

OIL gaped past our stop so it never got hit, We are still in OIL, get out.

Buy to cover 50 shares OIL @ 52.66

Alert : OEF SPY IVV

Going to add to the S&P short side. The OEF has broken support around 64 and now rest underneath at 62. Instead of adding to the SPY short we will use a full position of the OEF.

Sell short 100 shares OEF @ 61.97 with a stop @ 63. 86

Alert: IVV SPY

Ok we will place a stop on the spydrs

Buy to cover 50 shares SPY @ 135.15 stop market
Buy to cover 50 shares SPY @ 135.95 stop market

Trade Update: IVV SPY

Well, we got the market manipulation anticipated in the immediately preceding post. SO, now I expect to look for an exit strategy from the short side SPY while holding long the IVV until it eventually fades. I don't know if I'll take all the profits at once or step out, but I know this, the market will gap this morning, don't chase it.

Trade Update: IAU GLD

Gold and silver along with the mining stocks are way overbought and finally beginning to correct. But market manipulation being what it is the FED has a habit of surprise rate cutting on options expiration Friday, today. I don't want to be short GLD or GDX when the FEDs play their games. If I'm correct gold will correct in a tradeable fashion then resume the path to 1000, in which case I will cover the IAU and ride GLD back up until it's next correction, profiting from both side of the trade. If I'm wrong I will close both sides of the trade for NO LOSS.

Alert :GLD IAU

Buy 100 shares GLD @ 86.53
Sell short 100 shares IAU @ 86.89

Trade Alert: OIL

Move the stop down

Buy to cover 50 shares OIL @ 52.58

Alert :GLD GDX

FED speak latter today makes things unpredictable. Cover GLD and GDX. May go long both.

Buy to cover 50 shares GLD @ 87.53

Buy to cover 25 shares GDX @ 49.22

Trade Update: GLD GDX

Gold sold off yesterday and our GLD and GDX shorts were up big, will they hold? There is no way to know for sure. The selling volume yesterday was HUGE on both GLD and GDX. The question is was it exhaustive? Look at GLD (Link 1) and notice before the huge selling the volume was normal which is less indicative of a turn around than the situation in GDX (Link 2) where the huge selling is preceded by huge buying. The stochastic is in free fall for both markets and they beg to stay short as long as they stay below the eight day EMA.

Link 1: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=gld&time=8

Link 2:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=gdx&sid=0&o_symb=gdx&freq=1&time=8&x=42&y=19

Alert: GDX GLD

Add a1/4 to our GDX short position and open a 1/4 short position on GLD

sell short 25 shares GDX @ 50.05 stop @ 50.90
sell short 25 shares GLD @ 87.98 stop @ 88.90

Alert: GDX

The metals are finally beginning to break down, we will take a 1/4 short position in GDX.

Sell short 25 shares GDX @ 51.46 stop @ 52.61

Market Watch

The SRS gaped way up today so we will have to wait for an entry, do not chase it here. OIL is still in the well defined down trend alluded to in yesterdays post. We are short 50 shares of OIL and there is nothing to do but move the stop down to 54.79. If the IVV breaks the 138 support level we may have to set some stops. Or we may reverse the direction of the trade i.e. hold both positions until the Plungers come alive, then cover the SPY and ride the long IVV back up. If nothing seems to be working we can close both trades for no loss Wait for the alert.

The Death of Ponzi

In the December 9 issue of the San Francisco Chronicle (link 2) there is a great article by Sean Olender. It pointed out that none of the administration proposals has anything to do with keeping families in their homes. In fact according to Olender

"The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks and forcing them to buy back worthless mortgage securities at face value - right now almost 10 times their market worth."

I have only two little observations.

First, the subprime problem is a fall guy for the real criminals and a distraction from the real story. Make no mistake Mr. Olender is right on, if you are thinking mortgages and freezes you are short of the point, but it's bigger even than the entire mortgage market as Mr. Olender says. The true culprit is the credit crack addicted system of Ponzi finance and it's Wall Street enablers while the REAL story is about collapse of that American way of finance. The truth of the matter is that this had to happen no matter what, subprime was just where the bubble finally burst, where the scam finally ran out of steam. No Ponzi scheme can continue indefinitely, whether the dot bomb, the subprime or the next scam sooner or later in a Minskey moment is was bound to fail. It's no different than the Ponzi finance scheme of credit card roll over. A construction worker can live in a palace, sail a huge yacht and flying around from one to the next in a private jet purely on credit for only so long. So, now the American Ponzi system is dead. Shot a million times like Sonny at the toll both then kicked in the head.

So, that's my first point, Ponzi finance is at it's end, my second point is that the lawsuits have just begun(Link 1).

Link 1:http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/subprime-stoush-head-to-court/2008/01/14/1200159363493.html

Link 2: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/12/09/IN5BTNJ2V.DTL&type=printable

Trade Alert: OIL

The OIL is maintaining the down trend established in the daily chart from 58.33 (Link). As long as it trades beneath the 8 day EMA we remain short. For now adjust the stop down to 55.39

Buy to cover 50 shares OIL @ 55.39

Link:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=oil&time=8

Alert : CFC

Buy to cover 125 shares CFC @ 6.44

Trade Alert: SRS

Who besides the Wall Street media believes the housing market is near a bottom? Well then put your money where your mouth is and short the SRS. SRS is the ProShares UltraShort Real Estate exchange traded fund (ETF). The SRS goes up as the housing index goes down. In the chart (Link 1) you can see how the SRS banged up against 120 four times then retraced before breaking through with fury at the beginning of the month. So, 120 is now strong support. In the 15 minute time frame (Link 2) you can see the SRS gaped above 120 on Jan. 3 on it's way to the 135 area, then retraced testing 120 the first time. It then screamed to 145 on Thursday of last week, from where it had to retrace. On the second retracement it successfully retested the 120 area this time at 123.80 to be exact. The described action gives us our beloved W formation. But the SRS is not a buy yet. The stochastic is at about 50 and aiming down. However with the selling volume abating and the SRS resting on it's eight day EMA I would not let it break 130 before taking a quarter position.
Notice that buying the SRS you are going to take a short position.

Link 1:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=srs&time=8

Link 2:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=srs&sid=&o_symb=srs&freq=7&time=3

Trade Update: IVV SPY

We are long the IVV from 140.38 and short the SPY from 139.15. We entered long the IVV at 140.38 on Thursday which is exactly where it closed on Friday after a brief ride to 143.01. At the same time we were short the SPY from 139.15 (Link). It looks like the plungers were at work again on Friday as the market was able-for no good reason- to hold the 140 level actually bouncing off of 139.56. So, where does that leave us? It looks to me like the market held the 138 mark on Wednesday of last week and had a successful retest of the zone on Friday after rebounding from 139.56. I expect the market to rally for a few days this week as this is an election year and people are starting to talk-about recession-. We want to sell the IVV into the rally then ride the SPY down into the sell off and overall longer trend. If I am wrong about the direction of the longer trend the worst that should happen is NO LOSS.

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ivv&sid=0&o_symb=ivv&freq=7&time=3

Trade Alert: CFC

Place a buy stop on Country Wide Financial for the full position.

Buy to cover 125 shares CFC @ 6.87 Stopmarket.

Alert : IVV

Take the full position in IVV now

Buy 100 shares IVV @ 140.38

Trade Alert:GS BSC

The Plunger Protection Team huddled publicly in the oval office Tuesday, then rate cut rumors followed by a turn around yesterday in the stock market. Are these related, only a conspiracy theorist would say so, but I am a coincident theorist so I say just a change in market direction is occurring. Since a change in market direction will always be lead by the financials which is lead by Goldman Sachs this is what we will buy for the ride up. The stochastic in the 15 minute chart is over 80 so we may have to wait for a pull back. As far as Bear Sterns goes buy it above 75 with a stop at 73.51. Wait for the alert.

Plunger Alert: SPY IVV

Well we shorted a full position of SPY today at 139.15. Around 3:30 I noticed the market running up into the close with a yawn, it was just some day traders and shorts closing shop for the day. They will be back in the morning what will attract longs into this market I quipped? How about a rate cut. Yea I think that will do it for a little while anyway. The S&P500 is in a powerful downtrend with a technical bounce past due. But don't mistake a technical bounce for a change in trend. The bounce is trade able and we will be in, but don’t get stopped out of the short position on SPY. Instead we will take a full position (long) in IVV tomorrow morning and ride it holding on to the short SPY position. Just stay long IVV above 140 and no worries- You CAN'T lose.

Trade Alert: SPY

Short a full position of spy

Sell short 100 shares SPY @ 139.15

Trade Update:GDX

We could have an island reversal taking place on the GDX. If GDX gaps down under 50 that's what it will be. if not we will get out of the short position and go long.

Trade Alert: OIL USO

Look at the weekly chart of OIL in link 1. As has been mentioned the last two price bars of November indicated a reversal was in store. While the reversal candle stick still has not technically been defeated the anticipated sell of has not occurred either. Link 2 shows OIL in the daily time frame where it is in a down trend from 58.33 with support at 55. If the down trend is broken 100 dollar a barrel oil here I come and away OIL and USO will go. So put a Buy to cover stop on OIL at 57.5 and look to buy a full position of USO on the open. There will be an Alert for the USO, but for OIL place a

Stop market buy to cover 50 shares of OIL @ 57.5.

Link 1:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=oil

Link 2:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=oil

Market Update: S&P500 (SPX)

Following yesterdays post the bounce failed to materialize. The SPX did briefly break 1425 to 1430.28 before failing and falling to 1390.19 to close. As I said in yesterdays post 12500.00 is most likely the next stop. So tomorrow it's easy, we will short the S&P500 (SPX) with the SPY and stay short under 1400. As I believe these market prices are based on Ponzi finance and doomed to crash there will be no stop for now. I do not want to let the plunger gang push me around. If the SPY should break up through 140 I will go long the IVV until it eventually turns back down. The only question is position size. If the market opens in an orderly fashion take a full position, otherwise take a half position and add on a retracement.

Trade Alert:GS

It looks like they are going to try to take it up this morning. I will be looking to enter Goldman Sachs for the bounce. If it gaps don't chase it and don't trade for 15 minutes at least.

Market Update: S&P500 (SPX)

When the SPX broke the 1440 support level there really was no other stopping place until the 1410 level where it closed yesterday (Link 1). If the SPX violates this region and should close under say 1400 you have to go back two years to spot any semblance of support at 1250, the rest is air. Will the SPX violate 1400? It’s impossible to say, there is a series of four pronounced lower highs of 1576, 1550, 1525 and 1500. Together they define a very formidable downtrend and the market is being forced under it. On the other hand the market is resting on firm support after a stiff and consistent sell off which may need a breather. Notice the stochastic under 20, crossing over and turning up, bodes well for bulls. In the 15 minute chart you can see the SPX in a severe decline until yesterday morning when it bounced off the 1405 level retraced upward to 1423.87 then sold off back to 1406 before closing at 1416.18, doing so the price action formed the charactistic W formation. So this is it, we want to see the resistance at 1425 taken out and a small trend line in the 15 minute chart to form as well before going long the SPX. This is what I’m looking for.

Link 1: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spx&sid=0&o_symb=spx&freq=1&time=8

Link 2: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spx&sid=0&o_symb=spx&freq=7&time=18

Trade Update:OIL

We are now short 100 shares of oil after covering the 100 shares sold @ 56.97 for 55.37.
That's a 1.60 point profit or 56.97/55.37 = 1.028 say 3% gain. We are still in the hole with the other 50 shares, but be patient there are a lot of profits to be taken by the insiders.

Trade Alert GDX

Take a 1/2 short position on GDX

Sell short 50 shares GDX @ 49.30

buy stop 25 shares @ 50.30

buy stop 25 shares @ 51.30

Alert OIL

Buy to cover 100 shares OIL @ 55.37

Remain short 50 shares

Alert OIL

We are going to add to the OIL short

Sell short 100 shares OIL @ 56.97 with a buy stop @ 57.8

We are now short 150 shares.