Trade Update: USO OIL

Let's take a look at our USO OIL trade which for now only consists of a full short position on OIL. The topping process is well under way. Count back six weeks or six price bars in the weekly price frame (Link 1). Notice the week ended up, then the following week closed down in a big way lower than the three previous weeks. That it hugely bearish. The 52 week high occurred that week at 57.66, I doubt we will see that again before a break back to at least 50. Draw a line from the yearly high 57.66 to this week's high 54.32 and that defines a down trend. Now draw a line through the bottom of the price bars of the last three weeks (it won't be exactly straight) that defines an up trend. The price activity is trapped in the ever narrowing wedge. There is only one certainty, it won't stay there. Which way will it break? No way to know, with the stochastic turning up from under 50 it still has room to rise, but I don't think the gigantic already mentioned reversal (candlestick) will be easily defeated.

Now zoom in on the daily chart (Link 2). You can see a wedge forming all month long from 50 to 55. Again, this is a consolidation which usually has an explosive resolution. I don't believe it's explosive enough to break the old high of 57.66, which it must do for me to abandon the trade. Yet, if that's what happens I don't want to lose 57.66-54.32=3.334 points on a full position so I will buy 25 shares of USO if OIL breaks 55. If after that the USO breaks 75 I will buy another 25 shares.

Tops are not a point on a stock chart. A top is a process of money changing form the people who have made profits and now taking those profits and those late to the party who are going to get burnt, again. That's the general public reading the Wall Street journal and watching CNBN.

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=oil&time=8&freq=1

Link 2:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=oil&time=8

End Game

I am an out of work construction worker who is right about the stock market a lot. A lot more than the MBA totin smart Street punks in the financial media. Why? The answer is the point of this site. But back to the point, I was right when I told you December sixth that Cramer was setting you up to buy the gold that he and his friends would be selling into on December 11. I was right when I told you all the banks and bond insurers are insolvent. And I was definitely right yesterday when I told you what Greenspan, the banker's Master Mouthpiece was "really" saying. Namely that Gracious Al's proposed direct cash payments to the dear little people so as not to have them thrown, husbands and wives, kids and kittens screaming pavement ward was entirely about keeping intact the mortgage payment cash stream to the banks, in a gentle non taxable way thereby protecting, preserving and defending their ponzi capital scam. I was right, but not right on (I'm a construction worker remember). What's right on is a lot worse.

The World's Largest Banks Are Now Trapped

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north591.html

The Five White Guys Who Run Wall Street

Here we go again. As I have said on this blog Barclay's is insolvent. I've been saying it and even arranged my hedge positions base on that hypothesis. Consider the USO OIL trade we are in right now for example. We are short the Barclay's oil ETF OIL with the stated intention to hedge long the USO, but only short OIL, precisely because of my fears of Barclay's insolvency. So, why is the Street's biggest criminal finally getting around to telling you this now (Link 1)? Because it's no longer of any use to you. Barclay's BCS will likely begin to recover sometime in the next week. Goldman could have downgraded BCS in February when the price per share was above 68, or again in April or July when it poked above 60, then failed signaling its full intention to do so both times (Link 2). Make no mistake about it Goldman was selling on all three occasions, but they keep you in the dark about it. Now when the share price is 20 points lower they downgrade, scarring out of your shares after sustained high volume selling has emptied the pool of longs (see the solid red volume block) and the stochastic turning up from nearly zero. This is as blatant as it is criminal. Goldman's golden criminals are out to steal your kids lunch money and your pension check. I just hope you don't own a Mutual fund.

The purpose of the blog is to inform novice investors of what it is they are really up against on the Street. This video is delivers an excellent illustration.

Link 1:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601208&sid=aF5yjLYFndRY&refer=finance

Link 2:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=bcs&sid=0&o_symb=bcs&freq=1&time=8&x=26&y=13

Ponzi Profits and Pathological Liars

These liars are persistent and pathological willing without hesitation to commit any atrocity for the furtherance of profit.

Yesterday former FEDster in chief Alan Greenspan said

...,' that compelling lenders to alter mortgage contracts would be a damaging tax on the economy,....'

"I'm saying instead of in effect 'taxing' financial institutions and giving the funds to the homeowners, we'd be far better off, as far as the future structure of our financial markets are concerned, to do it strictly with cash. '

Oh humbug, we can't have 'effective' taxing of big corporations-banks-especially this time of year. We know Al, don't want to undo you're handiwork, after all you worked hard to con homeowners out of their homes to begin with. But I am touched that you want all those nice folks to able to make their mortgage payments this time of year, so that you and yours can keep the ponzi capital scam going globally, gleefully. And nostalgia I love it. This reminds me cheerfully of the irrational exuberance scolding you so grandfatherly handed down while the stock market was inflating in the fall of 1996. Yea, the irrational exuberance you created with interest rates near ZERO. Now we want a direct cash non institutional taxing payout to the little people who can keep paying for the what would be the worthless junk bonds your pals-banks- are holding near at this time of year. Isn't that kinda a stealth rate cut (ZERO) again? I get it, a nice Christmas bail out for the banks and the gift of inflation for the rest of us, how sweet!

Here is the rest of the story from the Wall Street Journal. I do not recommend that you read if however you may choke.


Greenspan Says Forcing LendersTo Alter Terms Would 'Tax' Economy
By GREG IPDecember 19, 2007; Page A14

WASHINGTON -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that compelling lenders to alter mortgage contracts would be a damaging tax on the economy and it would be less harmful to simply give the homeowners money.
Mr. Greenspan, clarifying remarks he made on television Sunday, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal yesterday, "I'm saying instead of in effect 'taxing' financial institutions and giving the funds to the homeowners, we'd be far better off, as far as the future structure of our financial markets are concerned, to do it strictly with cash. Do it out in the open. Do it cleanly and with transparency, not by hidden processes."
Mr. Greenspan said on ABC News's "This Week" that "cash is available and we should use that in larger amounts, as is necessary, to solve the problems." But he wasn't specific about what form that cash would take, and some have interpreted his comments as advocating a massive fiscal bailout, a stance at odds with his longstanding reputation as a fiscal hawk.
Assuming the government is going to act to help out homeowners, Mr. Greenspan clarified that he would like it to do so in a way that minimizes the distortions to private behavior, which economists say can result in the misallocation of resources, less efficient markets and a lower standard of living.
He said, "Emergency aid is what I'm talking about, similar to what government does in natural disasters. I would make the criteria for who gets payments exactly the same for who would get rate relief. You still have the problem of drawing a line between those who were irresponsible and those who are innocent victims. That's a tough political value judgment to make." But once that judgment is made, "it is far less damaging to the economy and far simpler, without the ongoing consequences for the markets, if you give homeowners cash."
Mr. Greenspan's concern is if lenders are compelled, either by law or by government arm-twisting, to change the terms of their mortgage contracts, that would erode trust in such contracts in the future and impair the functioning of markets.
"If I'm a mortgage lender and I know my contracts with borrowers can be abrogated for political reason I will feel it necessary to charge a higher premium to offset that. Any time you undermine contract rights, there are consequences for risk premiums in the future."
Higher risk premiums could take the form of higher mortgage rates or decreased availability of credit.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has hammered out a plan with mortgage servicers creating a streamlined process for certain homeowners with subprime mortgages to have them modified. Its goal is to avoid scheduled increases from their introductory rates that would likely result in foreclosure. Mr. Greenspan's views would be supportive of that only as long as investors determine such modifications to be in their own interest and the modifications are strictly voluntary, as Mr. Paulson's plan is meant to be.
Moreover, Mr. Greenspan worries that even voluntary measures could be harmful if they get in the way of a "selling climax" sending home prices down as rapidly as possible to their natural equilibrium level. "Involuntarily altering the forms of a contract or intervening in the market-price-adjustment process will delay the selling climax, which is necessary to end the current crisis," he said. "At the end of the day, we will experience a far worse outcome."
Write to Greg Ip at greg.ip@wsj.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119802756401338233.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Market Watch

It looks as though the Street is making one last push for the Santa rally. See in the chart of the SPX the low in March, the low in August and last months low. If draw a line through those points it would be upward trending. Next look at the high at 1560 in the last week of October right up to yesterday. You can see how the market declined in a straight steep line to 1410, the rebounded to just under 1530, then back down to 1445.90 yesterday. It is forming a well known "W" pattern. This is very bullish along with the stochastic under 20 could be explosive. To further cook the pot they came out with the criminal empire Goldman Sachs quarterly numbers. They really want to push this thing up. Goldman's numbers are phony and do not reflect the true state of the market, because they have so much inside information and manipulation ability that they can't loose. For example how can you have a bad quarter when you get to set the price of your own assets? And I'm not talking about just the level 3 assets. See the post Golden Godfather.

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spx&sid=0&o_symb=spx&freq=1&time=8

Alert CFC

Country wide is trading at it's lows. A break here could send it down to the pink sheets, but I smell a scam. The specialist may nock the ask down to stop everyone out in order to pick up some cheap shares for himself. This is options expiration week. The calls on country are cheap about 40 cents. The entire market seems to be very heavy. Is it a trap? I don't know the answer to that but know what to do here. We are short 1/4 position CFC 8.65. Let's fill that position out.

Sell short 75 shares CFC @ 9.61

Buy 1 Dec. 10 call CFCLB ask @ .30

Trade Update: USO OIL

We are out of the USO for now having bought back @ 71.74 the 50 shares sold @ 68.74 for a loss of 3 x 50= 150 dollars. The risk of short covering was too great to be so heavily committed to the short side. I will consider entering the USO on the long side only. Right now you should still be short 1/2 of a position OIL from 53.58. I will add to the short OIL if it breaks it's nearest support @ 50, from which 45 would be likely. You can see from the chart in Link 1 the clear down trend channel the OIL is in. I expect it to go below 50 to at least 45 in the next two weeks or so. But what I expect does not matter the market is my master.

Here is an accounting of the USO OIL trade so far

Sold USO 25 shares @ 70.23 bought 25 shares @69.50 , profit 25*(-.73)=-18.25 or 1% loss
Sold USO 25 shares @ 68.74 bought 25 shares @70.50, Profit 25*(-1.76)=-44.00 about 2% loss
Sold USO 50 shares @ 68.74 bought 50 shares @71.74, Profit 50(-3)= -150.00 about 4% loss
Bought 50 shares OIL @ 52.16 sold 50 shares @ 52.25, Profit 50 *.09 = 4.5 about .1% gain. Should still be short 50 shares USO

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=oil&sid=0&o_symb=oil&freq=1&time=8&x=41&y=17

Trade Alert USO OIL:

The overall stock market seems to be firming up. The USO is 71.47 coming close to support at the 70 area. With the stochastic under 20 and rising a short covering rally could be explosive. We are short 50 shares of USO and short OIL and could get hurt. so cover the USO, but hold on to the short position in OIL.

Buy to cover 50 shares USO @ 71.74

The Rescue Scam

Let's say you and I do business exclusively with each other and that our respective banks are the only ones on the planet. Now we write a lot of checks which our two banks continue to cash even though both of our accounts are overdrawn. This situation can go on indefinitely so long as each was willing to honor the other guys check. But what happens when your bank discovers that I'm broke? They immediately stop cashing my checks right? Wait not so fast, who else's check are they going to cash, do they simply go under? Suppose on top of that my bank finds out your broke, what then? Well that's the fix the global banking system finds itself in. The banks cannot continue to cash checks on overdrawn accounts because they will go out of business nor can they stop cashing our checks because then neither bank gets the money back from our previously cashed checks and banking on the planet grinds to a halt. The government can make a lot of noise about bailouts telling the public that they will not let banks fail and that's supposed to fix it right? Wrong. Because we are each still broke and so the banks comfortably propped up will still refuse to honor our rubber checks. Would you lend money to me just because you knew that my bank was solvent? The banks won't cash my worthless check either, even solvent banks will stop lending. That's the difference between banks going bankrupt and the total melt down of the entire global banking system. No one will lend so no one can borrow until eventually no one will spend, this is the economic apocalypse which is now so nearly at hand.

So, all the talk of this pathetic rescue plan is just a con game, but to what end? Do you know why Paulson's mortgage bail out plan helps so few people and even punishes the people who do pay their mortgages? It's because there are a lot of rich guys who paid triple A price for the junk they're holding and Paulson&Pals are buying time for them to get at least something for it. Just so the banks can pay each others bonds off, the government wants you to have confidence in a banking system that you should have none in. The banks sure don't trust each other based on the LIBOR rates, credit default swaps, the seizing up commercial paper market, or any other metric in use. I don't think the banks can ever come clean with themselves or anyone, anymore than I think they can be truly saved. But the banks don't have to have any confidence in one another, they can't just stop lending to each other because that results immediately in the unthinkable. In the end I think the government can do no better than get the rich guys their money back by looking the other way as the banks all just agree to keep lending to each other and not ask questions.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=071216220819.8p5p5753&show_article=1&catnum=0

Money From Nothing 5

PaulGrignon's 47-minute animated presentation continued.

Money From Nothing 4

PaulGrignon's 47-minute animated presentation continued.

Money From Nothing 3

PaulGrignon's 47-minute animated presentation continued.

Money From Nothing 2

Paul Grignon's 47-minute animated presentation continued.

Money From Nothing 1

Part one of Money As Debt. Where does money come from? When you borrow 1000 dollars from the bank. The bank eletronicly credits your account with 1000 dollars.Then backs that credit with nothing.

Trade Alert: GDX

In keeping with Cramer's Golden Rule notice that the GDX that Cramer tried to dump on you notice that the GDX is trading below it's 50 day moving average and above it's 100 dma. If you look a little longer you can see that the 100 dma is acting as support. If the GDX drops under the 100 dma I will short it. Look for the alert.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=iau

The Good News Is:We Were Both Wrong

A year or so ago a buddy and me were drinking in a bar when coughing and hacking in walked this guy with disease stamped in red raised letters across his forehead." Nothing personal, but were gettin outta here". Not so fast my pal says we're far enough away we won't get sick. "Are you nuts"? "The CDC is about to classify this guy a walking hot zone and were far enough away"? "Not even a runny nose". Well I listened to my pal, one he's smarter than me, two he's a doctor and three he was buying, so we both got sick and we were both wrong. How? Well we were far enough away, but something I said or did mus ta really set that dripping lizard off because it turns out he slipped the bar tender a c-note to not wash his glass and pour our next round into it. Nice scam, the guy gets away, the bar tender gets fired and me and my pal get his disease, exported out of the hot zone to the other end of the bar. OK I was wrong, we were (probably) far enough away not to catch anything naturally, my good buddy the expert was wrong, we both got sick because someone was willing do anything to infect to us, but now you understand how the mortgage mess got itself stealthy exported around the globe. That's the good news. The bad news is that it's BAD. It's bad, getting worse and no one knows or is saying how bad it will get. Me I'm saying Great Depression, but I've been saying that a long time. Why do you think this site has implode in its name? What bothers me is that some really smart people with data are beginning to say it too.
For one thing despite the global central banks frantically injecting bigger and bigger fixes of liquidity into the main veins of the banking system there's hardly a rustle of effect. Things must be bad. If it's as bad as I think banks won't just close the system will simply cease to function at all. That will cure your inflation. See this from the Wall Street Journal.

"It'll do little to provide a solution to the underlying problems that have led to the liquidity squeeze in the first place. In other words, the increase in mortgage defaults,..."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119758694278028095.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

That's the subprime virus poured into CDO and served up in a SIV. Bartenders please wash all your glasses!

On the flip side the FED is feeding red meat to the beast Inflation already eating the US economy alive.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/12/13/ccbanks213.xml

What's that they say starve a fever feed a cold, Black plaque in this case.

They really don't think this will work do they? I know I don't.

Trade Update USO OIL:

In yesterdays alert I wrote get out of OIL, buy to cover, but since I was long 50 shares OIL I should have said sell 50 shares OIL. Sorry I will fix that post latter. The important thing is that short covering came in yesterday an pushed the USO and OIL higher. I decided not to exit the trade on the basis of short covering and bid rigging by the FED and Treasury department. Was that wise? Only time will tell, but take a look at link 1. You can see the double top above 75, then a bounce off the 68 area followed by a run back up to yesterdays close @ 73.90. If today we USO fails to breech that 75 mark, then it's very simply all she wrote. It will retreat back to the 68 area and probably down to 60 in the upcoming weeks. I would not go long again USO until it breaks it's 52 week high of 77.59 with force. I would not go long OIL ever-don't want to wake up some day to find out Barclay's is bankrupt. OIL is strictly a short side hedge. So now we are short 50 shares OIL and 50 shares USO

Alert: USO OIL

I am going to have to make up my mind weather to cover the short position on USO before the close. The last half hour will tell. I'm incline to say no as the buying volume above half a million shares the average daily volume. This spike in volume is partly shorts covering and new suckers getting welcomed to the long side. With wanton willing of the FED to manipulate the markets though it might be too dangerous to stay short. Today's move by the FED was not the result of all night brainstorming, it was planed well in advance, they faked the marker out with a less aggressive rate cut , then shocked it overnight with a more a De facto rate cut. A nice one two punch,but it's no surprise to the insiders. Let's stay short USO. default

Plunger Alert

Yea the FED which is a member of the plungers is definitely rigging this market higher. They are getting desperate.

Oil rises above $91, Fed move supports

' Oil climbed above $91 on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve acted to stop financial markets from seizing up in a coordinated move with other central banks. '

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=hotStocksNews&storyID=2007-12-12T153038Z_01_T321590_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-OIL.xml

Trade Alert: USO OIL

The Plungers pulled an all nighter, trying to save this stock market from ruin and this country the stark realization that the depression is here. Don't let the gap up scare you out the stochastic on the 15 minute chart is over 90, let will fade. Now short OIL with half of a position.

Sell short 50 shares OIL @ 53.58

Cramers Golden Rule

If you took Jim Cramer's advice of last Thursday December 6 and bought a gold mining stock, "..., as a hedge against inflation when the FED lowers interest rates next week", you were had. I hope you did not do it after reading my post the next day with this same title. I don't take it personally if you did and I didn't lose a cent , but a lot of people did. In that post I told you that Cramer was running the gold market up into the FED meeting and that he would be selling it off after. And the fix was really sunk in deep this time. Did you notice how the gold market crashed right at the announcement? Usually there is a lot of turbulence right after the FEDs announce with a least one false break out the wrong way. Not today once the announcement was made the insiders cashed out. Link 1 shows the 15 minute chart of the gold mining index (GDX). As you can see there was no way you could have placed a trade while it was happening, you had to already have sold or been short, and Carmer was. How do I know all this? Well how did I know the gold markets would sell off right after the announcement in the first place? How did I know the Buffet buyout rumor of Countrywide CW and Bear Stearns (BSC) while I was short them was lie? BECAUSE IT'S RANCID and I puked on it.
Now Cramer is out and about feigning shock and horror over the size of the cut and telling everyone why it's the FED's fault (Link 2). Yea the FED was a coconspirator for sure, but it was Cramer's Street pals who gutted the entire US economy leaving the rest of us to bleed like stuck pigs. The FED gave us the housing crisis by dropping interest rates to near zero while the Street gave us the financial crisis by scamming up the SIV the Frankenstein of investment vehicles, dressing it up as Shirley Temple and passing it through every town and village. The issue here not who was at fault, but who knew. Cramer knew the cut would be a quarter point shocker so he figured why not screw you (who believe him). So he cons you into buy into gold stocks near the highs, gets them a few points higher, then dumps it right on top of you . Running interference the corporate controlled media(CNBN is owned by General Electric) then come out singing that the markets sold off because of the FED, the FED ,"look boss it's the FED. Here's the Pravda from Cramers own Marketwatch.com on reasons gold sold off(Link 3) and for the general market tumble(Link 4). Say Distraction anyone? Nice to own a little of the financial media right Jimmy boy? Next he pretends to rail at his partner in crime, the FED going on the tube he calls them names, oh those poor FEDs how will they ever go on? By living it up in the Hamptons on what was your money and flying to golf courses in Jimmy's private jet. Remember it's a scam. The stock market is a vital instrument of the powerful financial elite to take "their" money from you. They need you to have confidence that your money is safe in the stock market and Cramer is their chief con man officer. They con you to scam you, once coned the scam doesn't even have to be that good and this one isn't. It's called buy the rumor and sell the news. The rumor in this case is -the FED will cut 50 basis points- the news was-the FED cut 25 points -which is supposed to explain the sell off. If the news happened to be-the FED cut 50 points or cut by 150 basis points the sell off would have been the same. It's the rats leaving the ship. The none-sense about how the markets were disappointed by the 25 point cut only provides better cover, but Ponzi fix was already in and the insiders were getting out. So they gave up the 50 point cut they really wanted in order to rock the markets and exit. Too bad boys can't have you cake and eat it too. Oh wait now post FED announcement they come out with this.

U.S. stocks surge up on move by central banks

'U.S. stocks spiked higher Wednesday, with the Dow industrials up nearly 150 points, after the Federal Reserve and four other central banks moved to improve liquidity in the banking system and encourage short-term lending.'
(Link 5)
In translation it's a rate cut. How nice, nothing is to good for our boys. It's good for the boys, good for the smart guys portfolios on the Street, but it's inflation to you and me. I'll bet Cramer knew nothing of it in advance. Bet against it that is.

And how does Jimmy get all his insider information to begin with? Jim Cramer worked on the worlds largest trading floor, that of Goldman Sachs before he supposedly went off to run his own hedge fund, before he supposedly became the star of his own cable show Mad Money. The reality is that Cramer never left Goldman anymore than Paulson did anymore than Eliot Spitzer did.( Notice how Spitzer never seems to touch anyone at Goldman,but that's for another post) any more than any other Goldman gangster did. It's family. So now we realize Cramer as the propaganda minister for the evil empire Goldman Sachs, an empire which is a board member of the FED itself. The FED itself is a Private bank which has been granted control over the US money supply by the criminal Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Now is there any doubt that Goldman Sachs sitting on the FEDs board of directors is not at least aware of the decision if they haven't actually dictated it? Read the November 29 post Golden Godfather and see the link there. So there you have it. Goldman's US Treasury secretary rigs the rate cut of the bank it owns(in part) the US FED as Goldman's propaganda chief and TV star pumps the gold stocks knowing that he and his will sell on the announcement, selling the general retail investor and large proportion of which is his audience out again.
And if anyone ever tells you the media isn't fixed consider this: right now Cramer and all the analyst are analyzing the hell out of what happened and who's to blame for it,quiet a show, but after the fact. You have to go to blogs to find out what to do in advance of the event and tell you in fact who it is to blame, it's the same ones who sold you on the gold stocks before the event in the first place, Carmer&Paulson&Sachs.
Don't worry after a nice little pull back in gold and the gold mining stocks another buying opportunity will present it's self and you will know when Cramer says sell the gold.

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=gdx&sid=0&o_symb=gdx&freq=7&time=18

Link 2:http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=607070474&play=1

Link 3:http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-falls-after-fed-cuts/story.aspx?guid=%7BEBE025E8%2D700D%2D44CD%2D95E5%2DEEA46ED65060%7D&dist=TNMostRead

Link 4:http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stock-close-stiff-losses/story.aspx?guid=%7BC3F8C471%2D0FFD%2D403F%2D8BEE%2DA8D430F44CC0%7D&dist=TNMostReads

Link 5:http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stocks-jump-fed-allies/story.aspx?guid=%7B9C867456%2D3094%2D49F3%2D9935%2DD37F3529F9EF%7D

Trade Update: USO OIL

Here is an accounting of the USO OIL trade so far



Sold USO 25 shares @ 70.23 bought 25 shares @69.50 , profit 25*(-.73)=-18.25 or 1% loss

Sold USO 25 shares @ 68.74 bought 25 shares @70.50, Profit 25*(-1.76)=-44 about 2% loss

Bought 50 shares OIL @ 52.16 sold 50 shares @ 52.25, Profit 50 *.09 = 4.5 about .1% gain.

Should still be short 50 shares USO

Plunger Alert

I expect the bid rigging to begin right here. The plungers will not let this get too far out of hand. Recall the Cramer's Golden Rule Post and notice gold is selling off. The rumor was bought now they are selling the news.

Alert USO OIL:

Get out of OIL. I know this means removing the hedge, gut it gives us a chance to close out the long position on Barclay's ETE OIL. Barclay's is insolvent.

Buy to cover 50 shares OIL @ 52.25

Trade Update: USO OIL

It would be nice for oil complete it's profit taking process and let us be on our way to higher ground. Unfortunately it seems to be waiting on the FED announcement latter this afternoon. If the FEDs cut more than 25 points it would send the US dollar down thus sending USO and OIL up. That's not bad, but it's not picture perfect. Right now USO is hanging heavily underneath support at 70 with stochastic racing downward as can be seen in the weekly chart (Link 1). A break down here would likely send it down to solid support @ 60 in the daily chart (Link 2). From there it's up up and away. Well that's the scenario I want, but what I want does not matter, I will trade what I am given. The market is my master.

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=uso&time=20&freq=2


Link 2:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=uso

Pump It Up

OK the Wall Street manipulators are taking this thing way too high on the rate cut crap. Remember interest rate cuts can't be the arterial rot-to rooter of the banking system because the blockage is not borrowing costs but, rather that associated risk of borrowing cannot be determined. The S&P500 SPX has been in a downtrend for the better part of three months with a series of lower highs, 1590 then 1550 in October and 1490 in November which happens to be the 200 day simple moving average. They have broken that trend line and probably suckered the general public into supporting the 200 dma as well (Link 1). Just another little splinter in the shaft used to poke you with. How many time have seen it before, the market runs up into the rate cut only to sell off after? They want you to think you'll always be safe buying the pullbacks and holding, you'll get killed. In this market you do not buy the pullbacks you sell into the rallies. The US economy has been gouged and torn deep for a decade or more by the excess addicts on the Street and their corrupt enablers in Washington. Wounded and reeling it will not recover by the mere application of rate cut band aid. Everyone on the Street knows it and you'd better know it too, if not you will be buying in just as the institutions are selling out and the US economy is dropping dead.

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spx&sid=0&o_symb=spx&freq=1&time=6

The Raw Deal

Do you know why Jimmy Carter gave away the Panama canal? Well this is what he said at the signing ceremony in September 1979.

'The Panama Canal Treaty and the Neutrality Treaty were the result of years of careful negotiations. They have been hailed throughout this hemisphere as a model for equitable negotiations between ourselves and our smaller neighbors. As I said when I signed the treaties, they express the commitment of the United States to the belief that fairness, and not force, should lie at the heart of our dealings with nations of the world.'

WHAT, 'fairness, and not force,' you must be joking. The real reason for the giveaway was that outstanding bank loans to Panama were in jeopardy of default if the failing Panamanian economy collapsed. The bankers pressured Carter to sell out the Canal to protect their profits. After all how do you really think that a peanut farmer and nobody ever heard of him before small time governor of Georgia became the president of the US any way? Well history doesn't repeat it rhymes and these days it rhymes in harmony. Do you know why Paulson really wants to help homeowners avoid foreclosure? Well I'll betch ya it has something to do with those dam bankers again. Check this from the New York Times,

"As Elizabeth Warren, the Harvard bankruptcy expert, puts it, “The administration’s subprime mortgage plan is the bank lobby’s dream.” "

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/10/opinion/10krugman.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

FOX NEWS: DOLLAR INFLATION GOOD!

And they call Ron Paul a loon. Listen to the Faux bimbos obsessing over Gisele Bundchen

These two are trying to convince you with straight faces that a crashing US dollar is good for you.

At the very end they spat off something about how a lower dollar makes US goods more attractive overseas:

true and that's good for US manufacturers. But it makes goods more expensive for the US consumer. Good for who?

Cramer's Golden Rule

Flippin through the channels last night I came across Cramer on Mad Money. When I first became interested in the market I used to be fond Of Cramer or so they tell me. Anyway he suggested buying a gold stock as a hedge against inflation "when the FED lowers interest rates next week". Great idea Jim Ive been doing that for the last two years welcome to the party. You see what Jim isn't telling his good audience is that he's also been buying gold and gold stocks, that the rate cut will already be priced in and that he and his pals will be locking in profits as the market sells the news. Then gold falls along with the gold and silver stocks and the retail investors come up short again. Now the gold and silver mining stocks are a great place to be for the long term, but Carmer will get right back in just after he tells his audience to get out of the gold stocks. Think I'm just picking on poor ole Jim? take a look at the chart of the gold miners index GDX (Link 1). You can see the place to buy was 35 to 40 range to buy and that's where Jimmy got in, not the 45-55 range. I can see this one a mile away,Jimbo wants suck the retail investors into gold and the gold stocks on the rate cut rumor, then he will sell them into the rate cut news. If the GDX were to drop below it's current support of 45 it will likely fall all the way to it's prior support of 35. That's where he'll tell you get out, but that's the place to buy. Now the big money the institutional investors flood back in until they figure they have squeezed every last cent out of the new rally-except yours that's Jimmy's job. That's when Jim again finds another reason to get his viewers back into gold and gold stocks. and the beat goes on and the world goes round and round.

So look out, he will entertain you and give a good tip in between times, but you can bet that whenever Jimmy&pals want to take profits he will tell you to get in and tell you to get out when he wants in. In or out long or short he will be the first to screw you. And that's Cramer's golden rule.

You may ask how I know all this? The same way I knew the rumors that Warren Buffet was buying Countrywide Financial and Bear Stearn's as I was short them, the same way you know your fifth grader is lying to you and because you can hear him for yourself. (Link 2)
This you just gotta hear to belive (Link 3)

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=gdx&sid=0&o_symb=gdx&freq=1&time=9

Link 2:http://youtube.com/watch?v=GOGLvxqAk4A&feature=related

Link 3:http://youtube.com/watch?v=yxPH9ng50cQ

Alert: USO OIL

The crude oil markets are jittery after yesterdays OPEC shock. Economic data released today could spark the next major move. The market must weigh the possibility of a slower economy thus less demand against that of supply disruptions. We could see the USO trade back and forth between 70 and 75. I will try to place stops so as to exit one side of the trade or the other as the next move reveals itself. Wait for the alert.

http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnBAN722624.html

Alert: USO OIL

OPEC sent wrong message to oil market

In case you wonder why I do so much hedging it's because the whole dam global market is a scam to the core. I'm glad I kept the long side of my USO OIL trade. Oil is up big now, I'm gonna just hang back. The stochastic on USO(OIL) is just at 20 and turning up. It's at the 8 day EMA as well. I want to see if USO (OIL) break it 8 day EMA before I do anything.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/editorial/20071207TDY04305.htm

Who Keeps The Penny?

Suppose your kid told you he would get an F in Algebra, but on report card day proudly produced a D. Well you'd go out and buy him a new bicycle right? After all he did better than expected right? Sure. So be aware that during earnings season the Wall Street Pravda spin the same phrase "XYZ corporation beat the street by a penny". Which translated means clean out you accounts, get rid of your house and sell your algebra flunking kid into slavery, then dump all the proceeds into XYZ. Oh and by the way we think your STUPID. This is an age old scam. The analysts cozy up to the CEOs and CFOs and come up with a number, the analyst hit the print and airways with the number minus a penny in the weeks before the report date. Then everyone is blown away when they beat the street by a penny. Yippee! Now somewhere there's a lose penny rolling down Wall Street and I want to know where it goes. Who keeps the penny? I mean if I'm supposed to give it all up to these guy's I have a right to know don't I? No, I have no rights and neither do you. If the Street gets it's way you will have the last cent extracted from your brittle bones before they toss you into the gutter to die. Let's see how Forbes helps the cause on this one (Link 1).

First that title is precious. Slams a lid on it huh and so the liability just disappears, poof? Wait I get it, they have confessed that the ship is sinking so all aboard. From the article,

"Until now it has been very difficult for investors and analysts to gauge the value of RBS's assets because the state of the underlying collateral--things like subprime mortgages--has been unclear. " On purpose!

Finally the Royal Bank of Scotland gets up off it's royal arse and fesses up. Why did they just decide to come clean? Because they had to!

They want to suck investors into the stock as they will be getting out. More from the rag,

"Fortunately, though, investors are now far more sanguine about the damage British banks have taken on than they were about two months ago, thanks to the reassuring reports from Barclay's and HSBC. "

Barclay's are you kidding me they're broke. I dumped their gold and silver ETF's IAU and SLV respectively not because I thing gold and silver are not headed higher(ha ha), but for fear of an overnight Barclay's bankruptcy. When that happens share holders are left holding the bag. These financial elites are wicked and remorseless. Hard working people are supposed to go out and buy Royal Bank of Scotland because it's not as bad as they thought it was? I'm gonna be sick.

If any of you fall for this scam and go out and drop your last cent into any stock because they "beat the street by a penny" could you please do me one last favor! If before you croak you catch a glimpse of some of that lose change rolling down Wall Street could please with your last dieing breath whisper in my ear, who keeps the penny.




Link 1: http://www.forbes.com/markets/equities/2007/12/06/rbs-bank-subprime-markets-equity-cx_po_1206markets05.html

Alert: USO OIL

When a stock hovers just underneath support as USO and OIL are right now they usually move away fast and to the downside (Link 1). It looks like these are both going to break,but don't guess trade the break. I will short another 1/4 position of USO @ 67.25 if it gets hit.

Link 1:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=USo&sid=0&o_symb=USo&freq=1&time=8

Short The Bond Inssures with One Eye Closed

While the stock market is all giddy over the prospect of of a rate cut another monster has come up from the slimy depths. Bond insurer MBIA just had it's debt cut by Moody's and is down a wop ping 16% intraday.(Link 1). Fellow bond insurer Ambac ABK is down in sympathy. The market will get it's rate cut fix, but that won't fix a thing that's really wrong. In the ponzi scheme that is Wall Street companies raise cash by issuing bonds. They pay off those bonds with the issuance of more bonds and on it goes. And as long as it goes on everyone will think all is well and wonderful being none the wiser. But if anything interferes with this infinite fund raising the whole house of cards comes crashing down. The bonds that Ambac and MBIA are insuring are deemed less credit worthy than they were when they were first insured or more likely to default. Furthermore no one knows the credit worthy status of most of the bonds out or coming out. So no one wants to buy or insure or in Ambac and MBIA cases re insure any commercial paper, because it's all viewed with suspicion. It's got nothing to to with interest rates, no one wants to hold JUNK. You can cut the rate to zero tomorrow and no one will buy the bonds for the same reason I won't lend a weeks paycheck to unemployed friend of mine, he wont pay it back. The rate cuts will only help Paulson's carry traders and M&A insider pals for the rest of us it's a deadly bite out of our income called inflation that all most no one gets or complains about(save for Ron Paul).
Ambac and MBIA are each under the last real support they will ever see again. I will short the final phase of their decent onto the pink sheets. Wait for the alert.

Link 1:http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN0562613320071205?rpc=44

Ron Paul is no Serious Candidate

After the Republican debates last week Jeffery Toobin the senior legal analyst for CNN proved once and for all that anyone can get a law degree. Saying, "If you want to be a serious candidate you have to say serious things and you can't sound like Ron Paul who is still on national television talking about a trans international highway that some secrete forces are planning between Mexico and Canada that is a figment of his imagination"-some pompous stutters-" I, I, I, think people need to address the facts."(Link 1) Read the last part again. "..., that is a figment of his imagination I think people need to address the facts." Now watch this from CNN no less (Link 2). Ron Paul is addressing the facts right in your face Jeffery why, aren't you? Who are you working Jeffery? But it's good to know they don't own everyone yet. (Link 3)


Link 1: http://youtube.com/watch?v=V2mbQZt4-bk

Link 2: http://youtube.com/watch?v=AsvZys5hF4Y

Link 3: http://youtube.com/watch?v=gTShloR6u6A

Alert: USO OIL

USO is down 1.40 and OIL is 0.96 down. Just stay in both positions. I want for oil to drop to 80 per barrel. Since the longer term outlook for oil is much higher I will close the short position and double up on the long when that happens.

Trade Update:USO OIL

For those of you who are in the USO OIL trade we should be long 50 shares OIL @ 52.16 and short 25 shares of USO @ 70.23 and 25 shares @ 68.74. Take a look at the 1 year charts in the daily time frame (Link 1, Link 2). Notice that their shapes are identical only they differ only by scale. The UDO closed @ 70.70 while OIL closed @52.16. That’s because they are each an ETF tied to the price of oil. Now compare the volumes and you’ll that the USO trades roughly 2.5 million average daily shares while OIL trades at 0.025 million. That lower volume on the OIL explains means that it’s ill liquid, something no trader likes. But what really concerns me about OIL is that it’s owned by Barclay’s. More on that below. Now concentrate on USO the 1 year daily. What I notice is how it’s at support at 70 with the stochastic under 20 and turning up, highly bullish. So why did I short it? To see why look at it in the weekly time frame. There the stochastic has rolled over and is going down. If you focus on the last two price bars representing the last two weeks it shows that 2 weeks ago USO closed higher than it opened where as last week it closed lower than it opened a change in trend.(Link 3).
Go back to the daily and see how there is nothing even vaguely resembling support until about the 60s level. So if USO it breaks 70 it will fall a long ways. Will it? Can’t say. But here’s what I see. That stochastic in the daily will most likely rise all week long and by the end of the week be at or near the top rolling over. When the FED meets the stochastic in the daily chart will line up with the stochastic in the weekly. That’s when we could get our break of support. In the mean time instead of just getting stopped out of our short I would rather get some profit on the long side if it’s there.
One word of warning. If you get into this trade tomorrow you may consider the reverse trade instead. By that I mean long USO and short OIL. That’s because OIL is owned by Barclay’s which may or maybe not insolvent. They will implode someday soon, but hopefully not tomorrow. But when they do I would rather be short em than long em.

Link 1: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=uso&sid=0&o_symb=uso

Link2: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=oil&sid=0&o_symb=oil

Link 3: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=uso&time=8&freq=1